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Ed Nebendahl A lot of death rate corresponds strongly to the density of cases. Areas where medical systems get overwhelmed like New York or Northern Italy see incredibly high death rates. Areas where medical care manages to stay ahead of the infection rate see substantially lower death rates.
How much testing is done and for who also strongly correlates to case mortality. Take Sweden, for instance: they’ve got a case mortality rate over 10%, but it’s because they’re barely test anyone that isn’t showing substantial symptoms. If you only test people that are very sick, then the case mortality rate will be higher than if you test lots of people that are asymptomatic. Switzerland has about the same number of positive cases as Sweden, and about half the deaths. They’ve also done about twice as many tests, though, so there’s no real grounds for saying that they’ve got medical care that’s twice as good as Sweded. It’s more likely that people are dying at about the same rate, but infected people in Switzerland are just twice as likely to be tested as those in Sweden.
In terms of comparing similar populations, Sweden has a far higher mortality rate, both in terms of case mortality and in terms of deaths per capita, than any of their neighbors. Their approach appears to be failing, on either of those measures, and should not be imitated. South Korea and also South Dakota had no quarantine and did very well and georgia and fl have actually improved after 2 weeks of opening. Following Sweden’s rules in the US would have increased the caseload in the US 35 times over by late April, according to the Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise at the University of Kentucky. In other words, the lockdown has saved over 34 million people from getting sick (more in the time since, obviously). Presuming a very conservative case fatality rate of 6%, we saved well over 2 million lives before May.

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